July 6, 2026 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® Washington is back in the headlines as the federal government faces another funding deadline. Here is what it has historically meant for markets and your portfolio. This is placeholder content for design preview. Replace with the real article before launch.
June 29, 2026 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® The holiday season is the perfect time to pause and appreciate both personal and financial progress. A few reasons we are grateful and optimistic. This is placeholder content for design preview. Replace with the real article before launch.
June 29, 2026 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® As we step into 2026, long-term investors face a landscape shaped by historic interest rate cycles, rapid technological transformation, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. At Kirk Capital Advisors, we’ve identified seven key themes that we believe will define investment opportunities and risks in the year ahead. Whether you’re approaching retirement, building multigenerational wealth, or positioning your portfolio for the decade ahead, these themes deserve a place in your planning conversations. Introduction: Setting the Stage for 2026 The past several years have rewritten many of the rules investors grew comfortable with. Inflation returned, rates normalized, and technology accelerated. The year ahead rewards investors who stay disciplined, diversified, and focused on the long term. Theme 1: The New Rate Reality After the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades, the Federal Reserve has begun its descent. But don’t expect a return to near-zero rates. We believe rates will settle into a “higher for longer” equilibrium — a fundamentally different backdrop than the 2010s. This creates a meaningful opportunity in fixed income for the first time in years, particularly in short-to-intermediate duration bonds, where investors can capture real yields without taking excessive duration risk. Theme 2: AI and the Productivity Boom [PLACEHOLDER — expand with the final copy for this theme.] Theme 3: Geopolitical Fragmentation [PLACEHOLDER — expand with the final copy for this theme.] Theme 4: Inflation’s Lingering Footprint [PLACEHOLDER — expand with the final copy for this theme.] Theme 5: Healthcare and Longevity Trends [PLACEHOLDER — expand with the final copy for this theme.] Theme 6: The Energy Transition [PLACEHOLDER — expand with the final copy for this theme.] Theme 7: Tax Policy and Legacy Planning [PLACEHOLDER — expand with the final copy for this theme.] 7 Key Themes at a Glance ThemeKey OpportunityPrimary RiskAsset Class1. The New Rate RealityReal yields in fixed incomeRate reversal riskShort-to-mid duration bonds2. AI & Productivity BoomMulti-decade tech tailwindsValuation & hype riskTechnology, semiconductors3. Geopolitical FragmentationUncorrelated return sourcesIncreased volatilityGlobal diversification4. Inflation’s Lingering FootprintReal asset appreciationDemand compressionREITs, TIPS, commodities5. Healthcare & LongevityDemographic demand surgeRegulatory & pricing riskHealthcare, biotech6. The Energy TransitionInfrastructure build-outPolicy & execution riskUtilities, industrials7. Tax Policy & Legacy PlanningEstate/gift tax windowLegislative uncertaintyTax-advantaged strategies Final Thoughts No single year defines a financial plan — but each year offers a chance to refine one. If you’d like to discuss how these themes apply to your portfolio and goals, we’re here to help.
February 2, 2026 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® By: Steve Tomisek, CFP® | Chief Investment Officer For the sixth time in the last seven years, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, delivered double-digit returns. In 2025, the S&P 500 gained 17.88% including dividends. This remarkable streak, interrupted only by the 2022 inflation-driven downturn, has left many investors in a positive financial position. It’s often said that the anticipation of something is greater than the thing itself. On the one hand, investors always hope for strong returns like these, which are unequivocally positive for portfolios and financial goals. This is especially true as market performance has broadened beyond artificial intelligence-related stocks, international markets have rebounded, and fixed income has supported portfolios. Importantly, the Russell 2000 is up 5.31% year-to-date versus 1.37% for the S&P 500. Both indexes recently reached all-time highs. Over the past three years, the Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 by 8% per annum and a more modest 4.5% per annum over the last 10 years, which is nonetheless a significant amount of underperformance on an annual basis for a ten-year period. Many are expecting small caps to finally outperform large caps in 2026. So far, that seems to be the case. Not to be left out, non-US stocks as measured by the MSCI ACWI Ex USA Index are up 5.99% and just off a recent all-time high driven in part, by the falling US dollar. This broadening in the market beyond the Mag 7 signals good things for the remainder of the year and is to be expected in our view. It’s a reflection of the broadening of corporate profits outside of the Mag 7 and includes small-caps, developed non-US markets and emerging markets. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast is signaling Q4 2025 GDP growth of 4.2%, double the long-term trend of 2%. https://www.atlantafed.org. Finally, the close of January allows us to look back at three key technical indicators – the Santa Claus Rally (SCR), the First Five Days (FFD) of January and the January Barometer (JB) which measures performance for the full month of January – for clues for the remainder of the year. Taken together, these three indicators are called the January Indicator Trifecta. They are published by The Stock Trader’s Almanac. https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/ When these indicators are positive, it generally means that solid returns are ahead for the remainder of the year. For the most recent reading, the Santa Claus Rally failed to materialize but both the First Five Days and the January Barometer were positive for a two out of three-batting average. Since 1949, this combination has existed on six (6) times. While this is a small sample set, there was only one down year, 1994, when the S&P 500 lost 1.5%. Across all six (6), the median gain for the remaining 11 months was 13.3% and the median full year return was 26.4%. a Up Januarys are followed by up years, 89.1% of the time (41/46 years) with an average S&P 500 gain of 16.9%. The SCR and FFD were both negative in 2024 but the JB was positive, as was the S&P 500 which gained 23.3%. The SCR was down in 2025 while FFD and JB were up. Despite the negative SCR reading, the S&P was up 16.4% last year. Wil this year reveal the same. We’ll see. On the other hand, once these strong returns are realized, investors tend to grow nervous, especially with major indices near all-time highs and valuations approaching historic dot-com peaks. In 2025, there were turning points across many of the issues investors have faced over the past few years. Inflation, which is still affecting households, has stabilized around 3%. Tariffs, while high by historical standards and the main driver of stock market swings in 2025, have not resulted in the economic disruption many feared. The Federal Reserve has continued cutting rates, with 2-3 more cuts expected in 2026, and the economy has grown at a healthy pace. When we zoom out, perhaps the most important lesson to take into the new year is that what investors fear the most often doesn’t come to pass. The recession many have feared since 2022 did not occur. History suggests that for every genuine market disruption, like the 2020 pandemic or 2008 financial crisis, there are dozens of feared “black swans” – rare, unanticipated events – that never materialize. The challenge for long-term investors isn’t predicting which events will matter, but maintaining perspective and discipline across all market conditions. As we look ahead to the remainder of 2026, the investment landscape presents both opportunities and challenges. Topics likely to be in the headlines include the upcoming midterm election, a changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve, the future of AI, growing concerns around loans, the path of the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical unrest. What matters most isn’t whether investors can forecast each twist and turn, but whether their portfolio is positioned to weather uncertainty while capturing long-term growth. Here are seven key themes that can help guide how investors think about the year ahead. 1. Many asset classes are supporting portfolios into 2026 Importantly for investors, many asset classes are contributing to portfolio returns at the start of 2026. This is in contrast to much of the past decade when U.S. stocks outperformed the rest of the world. In 2025, international stocks outpaced U.S. markets, with developed market stocks (MSCI EAFE) and emerging market stocks (MSCI EM) each gaining over 30% in U.S. dollar terms. This has been driven by two key factors: improving growth expectations in many economies and the weakening dollar, which boosts returns for U.S.-based investors. Fixed income is also playing an important stabilizing role in portfolios. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has gained over 8% last year as the Federal Reserve continued cutting interest rates and inflation stabilizes. Higher-quality bonds have been serving their purpose by providing income and offsetting stock market volatility during periods of market uncertainty. In 2026, this underscores the importance of balance and diversification. While it may be tempting to make sudden portfolio changes based on headlines, investors who stay on track with their financial plans are likely to be rewarded. 2. Market valuations are approaching dot-com levels One effect of the strong returns of the past several years is that stock market valuations continue to rise. The S&P 500 currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.5x, approaching the all-time high of 24.5x reached during the dot-com bubble. By definition, this means that investors are paying more for each dollar of future earnings than in recent years. Investors typically worry about valuations when they become disconnected from the underlying fundamentals. For example, the dot-com bubble experienced historic valuation levels that far outpaced revenues and earnings, as investors rewarded any company related to the “new economy.” While valuations are expensive today due to enthusiasm around AI and ongoing economic growth, corporate fundamentals remain strong. Earnings have grown at a healthy pace, with the expectation they could continue to do so according to consensus estimates data by LSEG. So, it’s important to recognize what high valuations do and do not tell us. Valuations don’t necessarily predict immediate market declines since markets can remain expensive for extended periods. While some investors worry about an “AI bubble,” the reality is that not all bubbles pop. Instead, some deflate slowly as the fundamentals catch up. This is one difference between the dot-com bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s and the growth of cloud computing over the past decade. However, high valuations do suggest that returns could be more modest going forward, since markets are already accounting for future growth. This can also increase the market’s sensitivity to disappointments. Investors often say that markets like these are “priced for perfection,” so even minor misses on earnings or economic data can spur volatility. This means that being selective and maintaining balance across different parts of the market – including asset classes, sectors, sizes, styles, and more – will only grow in importance. 3. AI is driving economic growth and returns Perhaps no single trend has captured investor attention more than AI. Capital expenditures on AI infrastructure reached extraordinary levels in 2025, with the total investment easily reaching trillions of dollars. This includes building new data centers, purchasing equipment such as GPUs, and hiring AI researchers. Some of these investments involve deals that seem circular. For example, Nvidia invested up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which in turn is buying millions of Nvidia’s chips. These interconnected relationships have raised concerns about whether the AI ecosystem can sustain itself if enthusiasm wanes. These trends reflect the reality that AI requires infrastructure that few companies can afford alone. The question is whether the technology will ultimately generate enough value to justify the enormous spending. As it stands, AI investment is currently a large contributor to the overall economy. Surveys suggest that businesses are increasingly adopting AI into their workflows. According to the Census Bureau’s Business Trend and Outlook Survey, the share of businesses reporting use of AI more than doubled from 4% in September 2023 to 10% in September 2025. The share of businesses that anticipate using AI over the next six months rose at a similar rate, from 6% to 14% over the same period.1 While these numbers have jumped, they still have significant room for growth. For investors, AI presents both upside potential and downside risk. The Magnificent 7 technology companies continue to lead markets higher, driven by infrastructure investments and growing adoption of AI tools. However, this concentration creates vulnerability. These companies now represent about one-third of the S&P 500, meaning most investors have substantial exposure, whether they realize it or not. The challenge isn’t whether AI will transform the economy – it clearly will. Rather, it’s whether current valuations adequately reflect realistic timelines for returns on these massive investments. History from the railroad boom of the 1860s to the dot-com era of the 1990s shows that transformative technologies often follow similar patterns: initial skepticism, rapid adoption, market enthusiasm, and eventual integration into the broader economy. The key lesson is that markets often overestimate the speed at which profits can be generated. The reality is that most investors likely have exposure to AI stocks whether directly or through major indices, so being aware of this concentration, and staying true to an appropriate asset allocation that fits with long-term goals, will be needed in the coming year. 4. Economic growth is slowing but remains positive Economic growth trends have decelerated but remain stronger than many had feared. U.S. GDP experienced a slightly negative dip in the first quarter of 2025, but this rebounded quickly as tariff uncertainty faded. The 3.8% growth rate in the second quarter not only exceeded expectations, but is one of the strongest quarterly growth rates in years. When it comes to global GDP, the International Monetary Fund projects that growth could ease just slightly from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026. Advanced economies are projected to grow around 1.5%, while emerging markets are projected to maintain growth above 4%.2 Although positive in aggregate, economic growth has been uneven across different income groups and sectors. This concept is often referred to as a “two-speed” or “K-shaped” economy, since some experience growth while others struggle. In today’s economy, this divergence is primarily driven by technology trends, since those positioned to benefit from the growth of AI could experience greater job prospects than those in traditional industries. However, it’s not just about AI, since consumer debt, auto loan delinquencies, and other financial challenges can affect whether individuals benefit from economic growth. When it comes to long-term economic growth, perhaps the most important question is whether productivity will rise due to recent technological advances. Productivity measures how much, either in terms of quality or quantity, a worker can produce in a given amount of time. Historically, better equipment, training, and education have driven greater productivity, which is what drives real economic growth. As the chart above shows, productivity growth averaged only 1.2% per year during the 2010s. The hope of AI and new technologies is a boost to worker output. However, this often takes longer than expected, and won’t necessarily benefit everyone equally. For investors, the promise of greater productivity is that profit margins can improve, supporting the broader economy and investor portfolios. 5. The impact of tariffs remains uncertain While tariffs were the primary driver of stock market volatility in 2025, their economic effects have been mixed. In fact, one of the ongoing puzzles is how little immediate impact tariffs have had on inflation and growth. Despite tariff costs increasing ten times their average level compared to prior years, measures such as the Consumer Price Index have ticked up only slightly. There are several possible explanations as to why tariffs have not had their anticipated effect. First, many of the announced tariffs were quickly paused or scaled back. Second, many companies absorbed the initial cost of tariffs by keeping their prices steady and importing goods ahead of tariff announcements. Finally, strong consumer spending, fiscal stimulus, and healthy growth in AI-related sectors helped offset any negative impact on overall growth. It’s also worth noting that the Supreme Court may rule in 2026 on the legality of the economic justification used for these tariffs. For long-term investors, these recent developments, along with the first round of trade negotiations in 2018, highlight the fact that tariffs are part of the government’s playbook. Rather than reacting to these tariffs as a shift in the world order, they instead represent tools for the administration to support broader policy goals. While tariffs aren’t going away, their impact on day-to-day market activity could diminish. 6. Midterm election and government debt will be at the forefront in 2026 In addition to changes in trade policy, 2025 also had a historic 43-day government shutdown and ongoing concerns over the size of the budget deficit. At the same time, the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) tax legislation has created more clarity for investors and taxpayers. The new year will begin with more uncertainty in Washington as the short-term funding bill expires at the end of January. This means there could be another wave of negotiations that could result in another government shutdown. Then, some investors expect households and businesses to benefit from greater tax refunds due to provisions in the OBBBA such as full expensing of research and development. Looking further ahead, investors will likely shift their attention to the midterm election and what it could mean for tariffs, regulation, government spending, and more. The chart above shows that midterm elections have historically experienced healthy returns, averaging 8.6% since 1933, even if they are slightly lower than non-election and presidential election years. Still, the biggest concern for many investors is the ever-growing national debt. The truth is that the historically high national debt, which is hovering around 120% of GDP for total debt, or over $36 trillion, is unlikely to be solved any time soon. In fact, it’s estimated that the OBBBA could increase the national debt by over $4 trillion in the next decade. As it stands, the national debt amounts to over $106,000 per American. For long-term investors, it’s important to recognize what we can and cannot control. For example, the national debt has been a challenge for decades, yet investing based on these concerns would have resulted in the wrong portfolio positioning. While the sustainability of the U.S. federal debt may have implications for economic growth and interest rates, history shows that this should not be the primary driver of portfolios. Instead, what investors can control in the short run is understanding the key changes to tax legislation and how it impacts long-term planning. These include the fact that lower tax rates from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are now permanent, estate tax exemption levels will remain higher, SALT deduction caps have risen, and many other provisions. It’s the perfect time to review your tax strategies to ensure you take full advantage of these new rules. 7. The Federal Reserve will support the economy The Fed resumed cutting rates in September after pausing earlier in the year. As we enter 2026, the path of monetary policy could become less certain. This is because the risk of runaway inflation may no longer be the primary concern as a weaker job market has grown in importance. This requires tweaks to policy rates rather than dramatic shifts, such as those seen in 2022. An additional complication is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term will end on May 15, 2026, paving the way for new leadership by the recently named Kevin Warsh, who is expected favor additional rate cuts to support the administration’s economic agenda of lower interest rates. The chart above shows that the economy has performed well across Fed Chairs appointed by both parties. It’s important to note that the Fed only controls the “short end” of the yield curve, that is, interest rates that are closely tied to the federal funds rate. Long-term interest rates depend on many other factors, such as economic growth, inflation, and productivity. So, rather than follow the Fed’s every move and parse every statement, investors should continue to focus on these longer-term trends to understand the impact on interest rates and bonds. Maintaining perspective in 2026 As think about the remained of the year, investors face a familiar challenge: balancing concerns with the reality that markets have consistently rewarded patient, disciplined investors over time. The list of worries is ever-present, yet history suggests that for every crisis that disrupts markets, many more feared events have failed to materialize. 2025 was certainly a year where the markets climbed a wall of worry. Will the hold true for 2026? We’ll see. What separates successful long-term investors thought, isn’t the ability to predict which concerns matter most, but the ability to stay balanced throughout all phases of the market cycle. The bottom line? Markets have delivered strong returns, but elevated valuations and slower global growth suggest more modest expectations for 2026. Rather than attempting to time the market based on any single concern, investors should focus on maintaining balanced portfolios positioned for various outcomes. References 1. https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data_downloads 2. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/10/14/world-economic-outlook-october-2025 This newsletter is a publication of Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. A professional advisor should be consulted before any investment decisions are made. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for your investment portfolio. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. ©2025 Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. 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November 24, 2025 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® By: Steve Tomisek, CFP® | Chief Investment Officer As the holiday season begins, it’s the perfect time to pause and appreciate what we have, both in our personal and financial lives. This is particularly important since investors tend to focus on what could go wrong rather than what has gone right. At the moment, with markets performing well, it’s helpful to reflect on the past year to gain perspective as new challenges and opportunities emerge. Financial markets have delivered strong returns over history, and this year has been no exception. The S&P 500 has gained over 15% with dividends year-to-date, while bonds have returned approximately 7% as measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. International stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time in many years. Many diversified portfolios have benefited from this broad-based performance across asset classes. What can investors keep in mind as they prepare for the coming year? We have entered the fourth year of the bull market First, investors can be thankful that financial markets have performed well this year despite market swings. This bull market cycle, which began after the market bottom in October 2022, is now entering its fourth year. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, history shows that bull markets tend to last much longer than bear markets, often running for five to ten years or more. The typical bull market has delivered cumulative returns far exceeding what we’ve seen so far in this cycle, despite the many challenges investors faced during those times. While there are important concerns around valuations and market concentration, investing for the long term requires us to navigate all types of market conditions. The bond market’s positive returns are important to highlight after the challenging interest rate and inflation environment of recent years. As rates have stabilized and the Federal Reserve has begun easing monetary policy again, bond prices have recovered. This demonstrates why holding both stocks and bonds remains important for portfolios in terms of both balance and income generation. This resilience underscores an important principle: trying to time markets around short-term events is not only difficult, but can be counterproductive if not considered as part of your broader financial plan. This was true even in April when markets fell close to bear market levels as new tariffs were announced. Markets not only rebounded quickly, but rose to new all-time highs. Investors who remained disciplined were rewarded, while those who reacted to headlines may have missed opportunities and, in some cases, may still be on the sidelines. Inflation has improved and the Fed is cutting rates Second, investors can be grateful that inflation has improved, even if progress has been slower than many would prefer. Prices have risen about 3% over the past year, which continues to be a challenge for households and policymakers. However, from an investment standpoint, inflation has been much more stable, and there are fewer fears of runaway inflation compared to prior years. This has allowed the Fed to begin cutting interest rates after keeping them at restrictive levels for most of the year. This is also to support the job market, which has been weakening since the summer. Historically, lower rates benefit both stocks and bonds by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers while making existing bonds with higher interest rates more valuable. So, even though inflation and interest rates will remain important factors for markets, fears of ever-rising inflation and interest rates appear to be behind us. Asset allocation helps manage risk while capturing opportunities Finally, investors should also appreciate the importance of ongoing risk management and proper asset allocation. The year ahead will likely bring new sources of uncertainty just as every year does. When this happens, there will naturally be worries about recessions, bear markets, and that the cycle may be ending. Rather than reacting to every market event, long-term investors can instead hold an appropriate portfolio that can navigate different phases of the market and economic cycle. We can also be thankful that we have different assets available to help balance risk and reward. Risk management is important at all points in an investor’s journey, and especially so after a three-year rally. The S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio of 22.6x is above average and steadily approaching its peak dot-com levels. Valuations do not predict what the market will do in the near-term, so this doesn’t mean markets can’t continue performing well. However, it does suggest that future returns could be more modest, especially when compared with cheaper asset classes and sectors. Thus, it’s important to have realistic expectations and to hold different parts of the market with more attractive valuations. Questions about artificial intelligence will persist. It’s natural that the effect on stock prices is difficult to predict given the transformative nature of the technology. This is similar to the challenges of predicting how the internet revolution would unfold beginning in the mid-1990s. Political volatility is also likely to continue with ongoing tariff changes, geopolitical worries, the growing national debt, and more. Recent history underscores that overreacting to these events is not only counter-productive, but can derail financial plans. The bottom line? The holiday season is an ideal time to reflect on the many reasons to be thankful and to review your portfolio allocations. A properly constructed portfolio balances the benefits of different asset classes and aligns them toward financial goals. This remains the key to navigating challenges and opportunities in the year ahead.
October 1, 2025 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® By: Kirk Taylor, CFP® | Founder & Chief Investment Officer Washington is back in the headlines as the federal government faces a shutdown if policymakers can’t reach a new funding agreement. This adds to a year in which government policies around trade, taxes, immigration, and more have created uncertainty for the economy and markets. For investors, it’s natural to wonder how politics might affect their portfolios, especially for those concerned about the size of the budget deficit and national debt. Understanding the historical patterns, and why markets generally look past them, can help investors maintain perspective during periods of political gridlock. Political drama in Washington can create uncertainty, but history shows that government shutdowns typically have limited impact on financial markets. While the toll that shutdowns have on government workers can be real, their effect on financial markets has historically been minimal. For long-term investors, these episodes highlight the need to separate political views from financial plans. This is especially important when daily headlines focus on controversial topics that have not historically affected portfolios. Government shutdowns have not historically affected markets or the economy On an annual basis, the federal government must pass a budget for the next fiscal year, which begins on October 1. While the government passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” earlier this year that lays out tax and spending policies, a budget is needed to allocate the actual dollars to different departments and agencies. Failure to do so by the deadline means that the government might face a shutdown, resulting in a lapse in government services and employees being furloughed. It’s rare for Congress to pass budget bills on time. This may not be surprising given the increasingly polarized political environment in Washington, where compromise has become more difficult to achieve. Over nearly fifty years, Congress has managed to pass appropriations bills before the fiscal year deadline only a few times, making last-minute negotiations the norm rather than the exception. One solution that Congress has used often is known as a “continuing resolution” which temporarily funds the government while lawmakers negotiate. Republicans are currently proposing a seven-week stopgap bill for this purpose. As the accompanying chart shows, government shutdowns have occurred regularly since 1980 under presidents of both parties, with minimal long-term impact on financial markets. The chart illustrates that this was true even during the most contentious shutdowns, including during the Reagan administration, Clinton’s 21-day shutdown in 1995, Obama’s 16-day shutdown in 2013, and Trump’s 35-day shutdown in late 2018 to early 2019 – the longest on record. For investors, shutdowns have generally served as temporary disruptions rather than fundamental threats to economic growth. Shutdowns reflect deeper political differences The current situation reflects disagreements over spending priorities, primarily around healthcare. While the immediate funding of the government is the focus, these budget battles reflect deeper differences around the role of government and fiscal responsibility. With federal debt now around 120% of GDP, many agree on the need for fiscal discipline but there is fundamental disagreement as to how this should occur. What makes this situation unique is the administration’s directive for agencies to prepare permanent workforce reduction plans beyond typical temporary furloughs. This represents a departure from previous shutdown patterns and could create longer-lasting impacts on the job market and fiscal spending. Note that furloughed federal workers do automatically receive back pay once the shutdown ends, a policy that was enacted as part of the negotiations that ended the 2018 to 2019 shutdown. For some investors, the threat of a government shutdown may blend in with other fiscal issues such as the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling becomes a problem when spending the government has already approved needs to be paid for, but the Treasury Department isn’t authorized to borrow above a certain limit. The only solution in these cases is for Congress to raise the debt limit, or else the government risks defaulting on its obligations. All of these fiscal challenges are one reason the major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. debt below AAA. Fortunately, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act also raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, so this problem can be avoided for some time. Markets focus on fundamentals, not political headlines So, while many investors have concerns over the fiscal trajectory of the country, government shutdowns have generally been uneventful for financial markets. The reason is straightforward: shutdowns are temporary disruptions that don’t change underlying economic fundamentals. Shutdowns can affect economic data reporting, which may temporarily affect important data used by investors and economists such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report and Consumer Price Index. However, this typically only delays the data, with reporting resuming once the shutdown ends. They can also create modest headwinds for economic growth if they last long enough, as federal workers delay spending and government services are disrupted. As the Economic Policy Uncertainty chart above demonstrates, tariffs and taxes earlier this year created significant challenges for investors. However, with recent clarity around both issues, this measure has fallen toward the longer run average. While a shutdown could always result in greater uncertainty, history shows that even longer government disruptions have not generally impacted investors. The bottom line? Government shutdowns may dominate headlines, create challenges for federal workers, and disrupt important services, but they have historically had minimal impact on financial markets. Investors should continue to focus on their financial plans rather than daily events in Washington. This newsletter is a publication of Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. A professional advisor should be consulted before any investment decisions are made. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for your investment portfolio. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. ©2025 Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. Copyright (c) 2025 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
September 9, 2025 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® By: Kirk Taylor, CFP® | Founder & Chief Investment Officer The stock market climbed to new all-time highs in August, while bonds also contributed positively to portfolios. This occurred despite continued uncertainty around tariffs, Fed independence, and technology stocks. The month began with U.S. tariffs going into effect against most major trading partners after the initial 90-day pause. A federal appeals court later ruled that the “reciprocal tariffs” are illegal, possibly paving the way for the case to reach the Supreme Court. Markets also stumbled mid-month due to concerns that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer to fight inflation. Recent inflation reports, such as the Producer Price Index, suggest that companies are beginning to pass tariff costs through to consumers. However, market sentiment quickly rebounded due to better-than-expected corporate earnings and greater confidence that the Fed will cut policy rates at its upcoming September meeting. Economic figures were mixed. GDP growth for the second quarter was revised higher from 3.0% to 3.3%, a strong improvement from the first quarter’s 0.5% decline. However, the jobs report published at the start of the month showed a significant decline in new payrolls, including large downward revisions to prior months. This led the White House to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, adding to the uncertain environment. Despite these challenges, market volatility remains low by historical standards. August’s solid performance across stocks and bonds underscores the importance for investors to stay balanced and focused on the long run. Key Market and Economic Drivers The S&P 500 rose 1.9% in August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 9.8%, the Dow is up 7.1%, and the Nasdaq is up 11.1%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 1.2% in August. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month lower at 4.2%. International developed markets jumped 4.1% in U.S. dollar terms using the MSCI EAFE index, while emerging markets gained 1.2% based on the MSCI EM index. Year-to-date, the MSCI EAFE index has gained 20.4% and the MSCI EM index 17.0%. The U.S. dollar index ended the month lower at 97.8. Bitcoin fell in August, ending the month at 109,127 after experiencing a “flash crash” on August 24. Gold prices ended the month at a new all-time high of $3,487. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% on a year-over-year basis in July, in line with economist expectations. The jobs report showed that the economy added only 73,000 jobs in July. Significant downward revisions to the May and June figures mean that the labor market was much weaker than originally reported. The unemployment rate remained low at 4.2%. Markets climbed higher on healthy earnings While day-to-day news and headlines can drive markets in the short run, fundamentals like earnings and valuations are what affect portfolio returns in the long run. Although stock market valuations are quite high by historical standards, this is supported by corporations that continue to grow earnings at a healthy pace. The latest earnings season numbers show that 81% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates, according to FactSet. This is the highest percentage since the third quarter of 2023, demonstrating that the economy and corporate fundamentals have been stronger than many expected.1 This also underscores the adaptability of companies as they adjust to tariffs, absorb higher costs, and find ways to grow despite policy uncertainty. Many investors are focused on the earnings and returns of the Magnificent 7, a group of mega-cap companies, including some with multi-trillion-dollar market capitalizations. This group now represents over one-third of the S&P 500, so their performance can have a major impact on the broader market. The earnings results were mixed for this group overall, but some of these “hyperscalers” did exceed expectations. Despite concerns about an “AI bubble,” these results helped to drive a market rally in the second half of August.The Fed is expected to cut rates In contrast, consumer-facing businesses reported mixed results due to changing household spending patterns. This is exacerbated by the implementation of tariffs, as companies pass on a greater proportion of tariff costs to consumers. Combined with the weaker-than-expected jobs data, markets began anticipating greater rate cuts beginning in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a speech at their annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, provided the clearest signal yet that the central bank is prepared to resume cutting interest rates after pausing this year. The Fed has a “dual mandate” to keep inflation steady and unemployment low. Recently, they have kept interest rates relatively high due to stubborn inflation and a strong job market. Thus, early signs of job market softness could tip the Fed’s decision-making toward careful rate cuts. Fed rate cuts can create opportunities across asset classesThe prospect of additional Fed rate cuts could create opportunities across asset classes. In addition to supporting broad economic growth, lower interest rates can improve borrowing costs for companies, reduce hurdles for new projects, and increase the present value of future cash flows. For bonds, lower interest rates boost the prices of existing bonds that were issued at higher yields. Bond yields have hovered in a narrow range this year, with the 10-year Treasury yield generally fluctuating between 4.0% and 4.5%. Even if short-term yields decline as the Fed cuts rates, many bond sectors are providing healthy levels of income. The U.S. aggregate bond index is yielding 4.4%, investment-grade corporate bonds 4.9%, and high-yield bonds 6.7%. These levels are well above historical averages and support balanced portfolios. For overall portfolios, investors should continue to focus on managing the different risk and return drivers. Topics such as tariffs, Fed policy, and the risk of a government shutdown in Washington are only some of the issues that investors will face in the months ahead. Rather than reacting to each event, holding a portfolio that can withstand these swings, while providing both income and long-term growth, is the best way to achieve financial goals. The bottom line? Markets reached new all-time highs in August despite many policy concerns. Healthy earnings and economic growth continue to support portfolios despite ongoing uncertainty. 1.https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_082925.pdf This newsletter is a publication of Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. A professional advisor should be consulted before any investment decisions are made. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for your investment portfolio. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. ©2025 Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. Copyright (c) 2025 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.
July 30, 2025 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® By: Nitish Kommoju, Intern A new tax law just passed — and it could help many Americans save. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) extends key current tax rates from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which were set to expire at the end of this year. It also introduces new opportunities to reduce your overall tax bill. Without this bill, many Americans would have faced higher taxes starting in 2026, reverting to 2016 rates. This article outlines the key changes, focusing on tax rates, deductions, and credits that may impact household finances. The information in this article applies to married couples filing jointly (MFJ). Other filing statuses—such as single, head of household, married filing separately, or qualifying widow(er)—have different implications. Some general highlights for those groups are also included. What’s in OBBBA? The OBBBA keeps the TCJA’s lower tax rates and higher deductions in place, preventing a return to 2016’s higher rates, which could have cost a couple earning $150,000 over $8,000 more annually. It also introduces new deductions and exemptions as follows: Standard Deduction: $31,500 for Married Filing Jointly (MFJ) in 2025, up from $30,000 (TCJA) and $12,600 (2016). Child Tax Credit: $2,200 per child, up from $2,000 (TCJA) and $1,000 (2016). Tax Brackets: Maintains the current 10%–37% brackets, compared to 10%–39.6% brackets in 2016. State and Local Tax (SALT) Deduction: Cap raised to $40,000 from $10,000 (TCJA). New Deductions (2025–2028): Tips/overtime ($25,000), auto loan interest ($10,000), seniors 65+ ($6,000). Estate Exemption: $15 million per person ($30 million MFJ) in 2026, up from $13.99 million (TCJA). Business Income: 20% deduction, with a $150,000 MFJ threshold (vs. $100,000 TCJA). Charitable Donations: Starting in 2026, non-itemizers can deduct $2,000 (MFJ) for cash donations. How Tax Rates Stack Up OBBBA maintains TCJA’s tax brackets, which are lower than or equal to 2016’s tax brackets. The table below compares 2016 and 2025 OBBBA tax brackets for MFJ: Tax Rate 2016 Pre-TCJA (MFJ) 2025 OBBBA (MFJ) 10% $0–$18,550 $0–$23,850 12% N/A $23,851–$96,950 15% $18,551–$75,300 N/A 22% N/A $96,951–$206,700 24% N/A $206,701–$394,600 25% $75,301–$151,900 N/A 28% $151,901–$231,450 N/A 32% N/A $394,601–$501,050 33% $231,451–$413,350 N/A 35% $413,351–$466,950 $501,051–$751,600 37% N/A $751,601+ 39.6% $466,951+ N/A The following graph depicts the taxes paid by couples with various (MFJ) gross incomes, comparing Pre-TCJA tax brackets with the permanent 2025 OBBBA tax brackets. For a couple earning $150,000: 2016: Married couples would owe $23,917 (15.94%) in taxes after a $12,600 standard deduction and $8,100 in exemptions. OBBBA 2025: Married couples would owe $15,880 (10.59%) in taxes with a $31,500 deduction, saving $8,037. OBBBA’s wider 10% bracket and lower rates (12% and 22% vs. 15% and 25%) mean less of taxpayers’ income is taxed at higher rates. Standard Deduction: Lowering Your Taxable Income The standard deduction reduces the income the IRS taxes. OBBBA allows you to deduct more: Filing Status 2016 TCJA 2025 OBBBA 2025 Married Filing Jointly $12,600 $30,000 $31,500 Married Filing Separately $6,300 $15,000 $15,750 Head of Household $9,300 $22,500 $23,625 Qualifying Widow(er) with Dependent Child $12,600 $30,000 $31,500 State and Local Tax (SALT) Deductions: When to Itemize Itemizing vs. Standard Deduction: In 2025, under OBBBA, MFJ couples should itemize if their state and local tax (SALT) deductions exceed the $31,500 standard deduction, reducing taxable income more. SALT Deduction Cap: If income is below $500,000 for MFJ couples, they can deduct up to $40,000 in SALT (state income, property, or sales taxes), but only if they’ve paid at least $40,000. SALT Phase-Out: If income exceeds $500,000 for MFJ couples, the SALT cap drops by $0.30 per dollar over $500,000, reaching $10,000 at $600,000. Need Enough Deductions: With income over $500,000 for MFJ couples, they would need other deductions (e.g., $22,000 mortgage interest plus $10,000 SALT) to beat $31,500. Future Change: The $40,000 SALT cap reverts to $10,000 in 2030. Child Tax Credit: Support for Families The child tax credit helps families with kids under 17: Category 2016 (Pre-TCJA) TCJA 2025 OBBBA 2025 Amount per Child $1,000 $2,000 $2,200 Phase-Out Start (MFJ) $110,000 $400,000 $400,000 Reduction Rate $50/$1,000 above Phase-Out Start $50/$1,000 above Phase-Out Start $50/$1,000 above Phase-Out Start Phase-Out Rate Explained: In 2025, under new OBBBA rules for MFJ couples with two children, the Child Tax Credit would decrease by $50 for each $1000 over $400,000, resulting in a $0 Child Tax Credit once their income reaches $488,000. Two-Child Household Example: Under OBBBA, a two-child household with an annual gross income under $400,000 may receive up to $4,400 in total Child Tax Credit—$400 more than under TCJA and $2,400 more than in 2016. This can support families with school expenses or savings. More Ways OBBBA Impacts Your Taxes OBBBA offers additional benefits: SALT Deduction: $40,000 cap (vs. $10,000 TCJA). If you’re paying $30,000 in state/property taxes, you could save $6,600 (22% rate) if itemizing. This phases out above $500,000 (MFJ). New Deductions (2025–2028): Tips/Overtime: Deduct up to $25,000, saving $3,000 (12%) for a server with $40,000 in tips. Auto Loan Interest: Deduct up to $10,000 for U.S.-made cars, saving $500 on a $40,000 loan at 5%. Seniors (65+): Extra $6,000 deduction, saving $2,640 for an MFJ couple (22%). Estate Exemption: $15 million per person ($30 million MFJ) in 2026, up from $13.99 million. A $20 million estate saves $404,000. Business Income: 20% deduction, $150,000 MFJ threshold (vs. $100,000 TCJA). Charitable Donations: Starting 2026, non-itemizers deduct $2,000 (MFJ), saving $440 (22%). What If OBBBA Had Not Passed? Without OBBBA, 2016 rules would return in 2026: Higher rates (10%–39.6%). Smaller standard deduction ($12,600 MFJ). Lower child credit ($1,000). For a couple with $500,000 income: OBBBA 2025: Tax = $104,076 (20.82%). 2016: Tax = $138,738 (27.75%), a $34,662 increase. We’re Here for You! OBBBA, overall, lowers taxable income for most taxpayers and small business owners, which generates extra cash flow available for discretionary income, savings, paying down debt, and more. The extra savings can go a long way to bringing Americans closer to retirement (e.g., funding a Roth IRA for yourself, helping fund a child or grandchild’s college savings, offsetting Roth conversions for higher income earners). We are analyzing the various tax planning opportunities OBBBA may offer clients. Every situation is unique, and now is the time to start planning for 2026. Contact your advisor today to see how OBBBA can bring your family closer to financial independence. Additionally, be sure to check out the sources mentioned on the next page to dig deeper into the numbers and visit www.irs.gov for IRS updates or reach out to us to see how these rules apply to you. Sources: Fidelity. “One Big Beautiful Bill: What It Means for Your Money.” https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/one-big-beautiful-bill H&R Block. “One Big Beautiful Bill Taxes: What You Should Know.” https://www.hrblock.com/tax-center/irs/tax-law-and-policy/one-big-beautiful-bill-taxes/?srsltid=AfmBOop_P7cQqd4IVS5GYt8bgv7f7cuIyouYFBqXVD0AyZzT2qqKM2-A Journal of Accountancy. “Tax Changes in Senate Budget Reconciliation Bill.” https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2025/jun/tax-changes-in-senate-budget-reconciliation-bill/ IRS. “IRS Releases Tax Inflation Adjustments for Tax Year 2025.” https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-releases-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2025 IRS. “One Big Beautiful Bill Act – Tax Deductions for Working Americans and Seniors.” https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-tax-deductions-for-working-americans-and-seniors Kitces.com. “Breaking Down the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).” https://www.kitces.com/blog/obbba-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-tax-planning-salt-cap-senior-deduction-qbi-deduction-tax-cut-and-jobs-act-tcja-amt-trump-accounts/ Tax Foundation. “2016 Tax Brackets.” https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/federal/2016-tax-brackets/
July 2, 2025 by Steve Tomisek, CFP® By: W. Kirk Taylor, CFP® | Chief Investment Officer On the morning of April 7th, with the stock market reeling, I issued a special message to clients, noting that the pace at which the market had fallen had not been seen since the Covid-19 panic. I quoted Vanguard Founder John C. Bogle who famously said that “Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy and reminded our clients that “Periods of panic can present opportunities for disciplined, long-term investors”. On that day, the S&P 500 reached an intraday low of 4,835. At the close of the second quarter, the S&P 500 closed at 6,205, with a gain of 1,360 points or 28%. Traders on Wall St., call that a monster truck rally! Looking back, I observe that the second quarter of 2025 showcased both the resilience of financial markets and their sensitivity to policy uncertainty. From the White House’s tariff announcements in April to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran in June, investors faced many challenges. Yet, the stock market went on to stage one of the fastest rebounds in history and finished the quarter at new all-time highs. Overall, it was a strong quarter for stocks, while bonds also delivered positive outcomes. For long-term investors, these events are a reminder that while headlines can drive short-term swings, maintaining perspective and staying focused on fundamental trends remains the key to achieving financial goals. Key Market and Economic Drivers in Q2 The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both ended the quarter at record highs, gaining 10.6% and 17.7% over the three months, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.0% and is 2% below its record level. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 1.2% in the second quarter. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the quarter at 4.2% after reaching as high as 4.6% in May. Developed market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) rose 10.6% and emerging market stocks (MSCI EM) increased 11.0% in the quarter. Gold rallied to a new record level of $3,431 per ounce, before settling at $3,308 to end the quarter. Bitcoin reached a high of $111,092 in May and hovered around $107,000 at the end of June. The U.S. Dollar Index continued to fall over the quarter, ending the quarter at 96.88. It started the year at 108.49. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.8%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved in May to 60.7, its first increase in six months. Consumers expect an inflation rate of 5.0% over the next year, down from 6.6% in the previous survey. At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged within a range of 4.25 to 4.5%. Markets rebounded to new all-time highs Despite significant volatility, the stock market recovered quickly once the worst-case scenarios for tariffs and geopolitical tensions did not materialize. The quarter began with heightened uncertainty following the announcement of new tariffs on April 2, which were more far-reaching than many investors had anticipated. However, as the administration engaged in negotiations and reached preliminary trade agreements with several partners, market sentiment improved. The Middle East conflict created a similar outcome, although markets were broadly resilient and went on to new highs after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced. The equity market rebound was widespread, with many sectors, styles, and regions delivering positive outcomes. International stocks continue to lead the way in 2025, especially with the dollar weakening. Small cap stocks have lagged other parts of the market due to their greater sensitivity to tariffs and domestic trends, and the Russell 2000 index is still down -2.5% this year. At a sector level within the S&P 500, Information Technology stocks experienced a strong recovery and contributed toward the new market highs. Many other sectors are supporting markets too, including Industrials which are now up 11.4% on the year, Communications which have gained 10.2%, and Financials up 7.5%. On the other end, Healthcare and Energy saw weakness. Bond markets are also quietly contributing to portfolio outcomes, with relatively strong yields and falling credit spreads contributing in the quarter. Treasury securities and corporate bonds also experienced volatility during the tariff-induced drawdown, although the quarter ended in positive territory. The dollar continued to weaken The U.S. dollar weakened through the second quarter despite tariff pressures. While a weaker dollar can be negative for consumers, it can be positive for U.S. businesses and exporters, since it becomes cheaper for those using foreign currencies to buy our goods. While the dollar has declined this year and is near the low end of its range since 2022, its value is still high compared to the past decade. When it comes to monetary policy, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% throughout the quarter, reflecting a measured approach to monetary policy in an evolving economic environment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s focus on price stability even as other factors complicate the economic outlook. Specifically, the Fed’s updated economic projections reveal the challenges policymakers face. Officials now expect inflation to reach 3% in 2025 before moderating to 2.1% by 2027, marking an upward revision from earlier forecasts. They also expect real GDP growth to slow this year to 1.4%, a downgrade from a 1.7% projection in March. These adjustments reflect concerns that tariffs could spur inflation and slow growth. The conflict between Israel and Iran added another layer of complexity to an already challenging environment. Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets beginning June 13 created immediate concerns about regional stability and potential escalation. However, the two countries agreed to a ceasefire after 12 days of fighting. Bonds helped to provide portfolio balance While the stock market has ended the quarter at new all-time highs, the decline and rebound was challenging for many investors. Fortunately, bonds helped to support balanced portfolios during the quarter. High yield, corporate, and Treasury bonds all provided balance and are positive year-to-date. Interest rates have remained higher than many had expected, and short-lived concerns in April about a flight from U.S. Treasury securities did not occur. Budget discussions in Washington have brought renewed attention to America’s fiscal trajectory. The national debt now exceeds $36 trillion, or approximately $106,000 per American. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the latest budget proposal could add an estimated $3.3 trillion in deficits over the next decade. While the proposal includes spending reductions, these are outweighed by tax cuts and spending increases elsewhere. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating in May, citing concerns about successive administrations and Congress failing to address “large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” This echoes similar challenges raised during previous budget standoffs in 2011, 2013, and from 2018 to 2019. However, in each instance, agreements were eventually reached, markets stabilized, and economic growth resumed. For long-term investors, these fiscal debates underscore the importance of maintaining diversified portfolios that can weather various policy outcomes. While deficit levels deserve attention, history suggests that the U.S. economy’s fundamental strengths and adaptability remain intact. The bottom line? The second quarter demonstrated both market volatility and resilience as investors navigated policy changes and global tensions. For investors, maintaining perspective and focusing on asset allocation strategies remain the most effective way to achieve long-term goals. This newsletter is a publication of Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. A professional advisor should be consulted before any investment decisions are made. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for your investment portfolio. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment advisor does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. ©2025 Kirk Capital Advisors, LLC. Copyright (c) 2025 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.